Kathy,
So, how many chickadee, bluebird, tree swallow nests were destroyed before the HOSP got to your traps in the school colonies?
Bluebirds are rare breeders here on the fringe of their range, but over all are listed as a "species of least concern" by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) meaning that overall, their population remains stable and they are considered to be in no danger of going extinct, S&S notwithstanding.
Tree swallows do not breed here but the following native cavity nesters do...
Golden-fronted Woodpecker
Ladder-backed Woodpecker
Brown-crested Flycatcher
Great-crested Flycatcher
Purple Martin
Carolina Chickadee
The only one that is not listed as "common" locally is the brown-crested flycatcher. I did however just conclude a survey for the National Park Service, though we are on the northern fringe of their range, brown-crested flycatchers are increasing rapidly here.
In our urban environment, both starlings and sparrows are abundant here, everywhere. Do all the species on the list suffer serious losses? Yes, I'm sure of it. Are they still common and stable locally? Yes, at this writing.
I'm assuming you don't do nest checks on all these other sparrow-infested and starling-infested housing. Is that correct? So, do you really know how many martins are being fledged from these sites?
Nest check 100 sites, on private property? Not possible.
You may recall however I did nest checks on five neglected housing sites for three years, more than 55 cavities at the start, something like 25 pairs of martins.
Yes they did produce young, every year, over those three years, despite the incursions of S&S. IIRC about one less nestling per nest, on average, than our carefully mainitained school colony.
Four of those housing sites are gone now (as many here would recommend, and even the PMCA produced a letter to that effect), so of course they are producing NO martins at all any more.
As for the rest. Hard to believe, but I have been checking neglected housing sites since 2006 (eight years

) ..and yes, as long as they are still standing, many of these sites have hosted martins every year in all that time.
Do they have young? Absolutely, in fact I wait until now to look at these sites PRECISELY because this is when they are feeding young. Presumably those with lost clutches and young have already departed, those WITH young are coming and going frequently, making it possible to assess whether the housing is occupied in just a few minutes.
Very few LARGE young visible this year (I just started counting this weekend), but then even our managed site is losing most young this crazy year).
Do you know how many martins that were unsuccessful at these sites keep trying there, or move somewhere else?
Dunno, but martins have remained common here in the twenty-five years I have been watching birds, sometimes professionally, in this area.
Martins CAN recolonize S&S sites where they were apparently absent the year before.
During my lunch I ran out and checked on this site not 100 yards from the school, this house has to be all of six feet off of the ground. Last occupancy was a single SY pair four years ago, so I wasn't expecting much.
TWO PAIRS of martins in it this year

Where several hundred high school kids walk by every day, just across that fence.....
Mike Scully